This article argues if NATO started today that Turkey would not get in and that NATO should reduce its cooperation with Turkey. Domestic concerns related to foreign policy are also voiced by analysts close to the government. Resolved: On balance, Turkeys membership is beneficial to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Israel, too, will be better served if Turkey remains in NATO and, thus, a moderating influence on Islamist Erdogan, who eventually may be replaced by a secular leader. In that case, the new government would need to convince the Erdogan-led political alliance to complete the process Ulgen added and how that would shake out is anyones guess. There are three scenarios in play: Erdogen wins, Erdogen loses, or a split government, each with its own likely impact on the Sweden question. The weapon system may stop providing security in a time of dire need or target aircraft without Ankaras authorization. However, Russia may manipulate the weapon system in a manner that is counter to Turkeys intentions. Lastly, Turkey would not want to give up the NATO nuclear umbrella, given that some of its neighbors possess (Russia) or are striving for the capability of developing (Iran) nuclear weapons. WebThis partnership should be based on mutual support, complementarity and transparency and will contribute to addressing more efficiently existing risks and threats. But by the time anti-government protests swept Arab countries in 2011, Turkey looked like a model of stability and Islamic democracy. This article argues that on-balance Turkey has been a strong ally and that its membership in NATO should continue. One of President Trumps great diplomatic challenges and whose media coverage was unforgivably scanty was posed by his NATO counterpart, Turkish President Reep Tayyip Erdoan. In other words: Erdogen may be willing to deal if he gets to tell the domestic electroate that we forced Sweden to deliver what he wanted. Unless there is a sudden change in Turkeys position, the negotiations seem likely to move forward on the delivery of the S-400s in July by Russia and the implementation of sanctions by the United States. Two U.S. presidential administrations running have now sided with Kurdish fighters in Syria tied to the PKK over Turkeys strenuous objections. WebOn balance, turkeys membership is beneficial to the North Atlantic treaty organization. Besides, in addition to the ethnic and religious background of Turkeys population, it has a broad geographic reach that could not be replaced byanother NATO ally. Facebook privacy settlement: Who is eligible for a payment? Turkey has chosen its trajectory. The EU is by far Turkeys largest trading partner: in 2020, 33.4% of Turkeys imports came from the EU and 41.3% of the countrys exports went to the bloc. Con Turkeys Response to the Russia-Ukraine Crisis. For further information on our quality control procedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/about-swp/ quality-management-for-swp-publications/, German Institute for International and SecurityAffairs, Ludwigkirchplatz 3410719 BerlinTelephone +49 30 880 07-0Fax +49 30 880 07-100www.swp-berlin.orgswp@swp-berlin.org, Turkey between NATO and Russia: TheFailed Balance, SWP Comment 2019/C 30, 28.06.2019, 4 Seiten, would not put the peace and deterrence pro, with Russia, as membership eases the threat, Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan and, political reasons in justifying the purchase of, they could have purchased alternatives from, weapon purchases unite people behind Erdo, https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/about-swp/ quality-management-for-swp-publications/, Digitalisierung Cyber Internet: Die Rolle des Digitalen in der internationalen Politik, Die USA und die transatlantischen Beziehungen, Foresight: Vorausschau auf mgliche berraschungen, Die Gemeinsame Auen- und Sicherheitspolitik der EU, Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine und seine Folgen, Centrum fr angewandte Trkeistudien (CATS). By accepting all cookies, you agree to our use of cookies to deliver and maintain our services and site, improve the quality of Reddit, personalize Reddit content and advertising, and measure the effectiveness of advertising. TURKEYS NATO MEMBERSHIP IS AN ASSET FOR BOTH TURKEY AND THE ALLIANCE (2021). However, the United States has initiated its withdrawal from the Middle East, with many of its NATO allies likely to follow suit. Turkeys NATO membership and its relations with Russia makes it uniquely capable of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. From bad to worse: Student misbehavior rises further since return of in-person Two hospitals may have violated federal law in denying woman an emergency Federal judge rules Pennsylvania school district must allow After School Satan McConnell insists hes sitting out debt talks to disbelief. It is of great importance for us to continue by strengthening Turkey-Russia relations every day." The two accused each other of risking the alliance via developing an affinity with each others adversaries, Russia and the Syrian KurdishYPG (Peoples Protection Units), respectively. This article focuses on the general geographic importance of Turkey to NATO but also highlights Turkeys role in containing Russia in the Black Sea and diffusing the conflict in Syria. TurkeyRussia relations are currently fragile and transactional. As Turkey continues to stoke the fires of ongoing tensions, the U.S. must make clear that it will not fight Erdogan's wars under the obligation of NATO defense if these disputes erupt beyond Erdogan's control. Look again at the line-up: Turkey is the odd one out and the sole Nato member, ranged against a united bloc of its rivals. How does Turkey-Azerbaijan military alliance fit into Russias demands for NATO? It is the only NATO member state in the Middle East, bordering Syria and Iraq, near Lebanon and Israel, a region that has been and continues to be the crucial crossroads of empire and history since biblical times. And this could be politically enough.. If you try to label this operation as an occupation we will open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way.. But there are people in [the U.S. government] for whom Turkey is sacrosanct and all of its problemsbusting U.S. sanctions, holding Americans hostage, threatening other NATO allies like Greece, supporting jihadists, buying Russian weapons, not to mention internal oppression and ongoing purges are our fault. Turkey controls the Bosporus Straits, Marmara Sea and Dardanelles Straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, giving it the capability to contain Russias powerful Black Sea Fleet. Erdogan doubled down before the Sochi meetings: "It is not possible for us to turn back from the steps we took. Look again at the line-up: Turkey is the odd one out and the sole Nato member, ranged Required fields are marked *. Turkish government circles have cast the recent purchase as a means to gain more autonomy from and/or better bargaining power with Western allies. Ekrem mamolu, the mayor-elect in Istanbul, has emerged as a national political figure and is now regarded as a possible alternative to President Erdoan. The question is whether these confrontations are a prelude to the end of Turkeys NATO membership. Comment * document.getElementById("comment").setAttribute( "id", "ac5dad2c77c59c582289e0d9616cc394" );document.getElementById("h3a3b068d5").setAttribute( "id", "comment" ); document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); The Journal encourages a variety of views. Even after Turkey apologized, contentious and confrontational developments in bilateral relations continued. Turkey participated in Baltic Sea air patrols demonstrating support for the NATO Baltic states (2006). WebPF: Feb 2022 Topic: Turkey & NATO. Also, if you consider the state of the Turkish economy, and depleting Turkish Central Bank reserves, there is a need to establish a more sensible policy with regard to the West.. But he thinks the government could still open a path for Sweden. This article explains why Turkey cant be a leader in the region. Turkeys Turkic world ambitions face reality check in Kazakhstan, Turkey is becoming a problem and NATO should pay attention, Turkey is creeping into Russias orbit and NATO is worried, Turkish Aggression Is NATOs Elephant in the Room, For Biden and NATO, Turkey is a Headache Thats Here to Stay, EXCLUSIVE Turkey pushed NATO allies into softening outrage over Belarus plane, diplomats say, Modernizing NATO Requires Dealing With Turkey, Universal Basic Income: Understanding the Debate, Vocabulary Related to Debating a Universal Basic Income, Universal Basic Income Affirmative and Negative Evidence, Resolved: The United States Federal Government should ban the collection of personal data through biometric recognition technology (Release), The Republic of India Should sign the Artemis Accords. When it comes to Turkey-NATO ties, Ankara is regarded as more of a problem than an ally these days. Back in 1952, with the alliance just a few years old, it expanded for the first time, welcoming two new members: Greece and Turkey. But they can take concrete administrative steps to satisfy Turkish concerns before the Vilnius summit and there is still a chance for them to become a member of NATO by then.. RT @ragipsoylu: 1- How Swedens NATO membership hangs in the balance in a Turkish election? Turkeys purchase of a Russian S-400 air defense missile system has raised questions concerning Turkeys alliance with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) andthe countrys future intentions. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said recently, We fully anticipate that Sweden will be a member of NATO by the time of the Vilnius Summit in July. But whether Erdogan stays in power, and by how much, may determine the next steps for Swedens bid. The Turkish administration expected tomake a grand bargain with President Donald Trump when he was elected into office; however, the prospects of using S400s as a bargaining chip to bring about meaningful results are limited. This soon became a case of more allies, more problems. oHuman rights: Turkey engages in oppression of ethnic groups, namely the Kurds, who it has a long and tumultuous relationship with. ANKARA There is a broad acceptance among NATO members that Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, running on a nationalist campaign, is holding up the Swedish bid for domestic purposes ahead of the election. It is one of only five NATO states (the others being Germany, Italy, Belgium and The Netherlands) storing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently met in Sochi to discuss military operations in northwestern Syria. Whats more, Turkey has long actively used NATO as a platform to express its concerns and views about key strategic and political issues. For example, some of the harsher reactions against Turkeys military operations into Afrin were able to be avoided through frequent updates under the NATO roof. In particular, Turkey has violated the principles of the North Atlantic Treatys foreword and Article 2, in which NATO nations agree to promote stability and eliminate conflicts in international economic policies, in its interventionism in Syria, clashes with France and Greece, and its dealings with Russia. Swedens NATO membership hangs in the balance with Turkeys election When Turkey goes to the polls next month, they will be doing more than deciding the There is an increasing likelihood that Kilicdaroglu may emerge victorious, even if he has to go to a runoff and a second vote, to be held if needed on May 28. Geographically, Turkey occupies some of the most strategically important territory in the world. This article generally discusses the importance of Turkey to NATO but highlights its role in supporting anti-terror cooperation and missile defense surveillance. "They've thumbed their nose at us, and they've thumbed their nose at their other NATO allies.". Resolved: On balance, Turkeys membership is beneficial to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. As a country with a Muslim-majority population, Turkey provides political legitimacy to NATO missions in Muslim countries, as seen in Afghanistan and Libya. The NATO members moved quickly, allowing Finland to join the alliance on April 4 with Sweden left out in the cold. Turkeys withdrawal from NATO may, or may not, be historically inevitable. Copyright 2023 Breaking Media, Inc. All rights reserved. That also means that when Turkey goes to the polls on May 14, they will be doing more than deciding the domestic future of the country they likely will also be determining Swedens future with NATO. This will not increase their security, our security, or the security of anybody else in the region.. 3- Turkey wanted to show that it rewards progress and it doesnt categorically and ideologically block Nordic countries, one person with knowledge said. Political scientist Samuel Huntington warned in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (1996) that Turkey eventually would turn Islamist and leave NATO. Turkey has NATO's second-largest standing army and is centrally located in a strategically significant region, which makes it an indispensable ally. Dr Mehmet Yegin is a Visiting Fellow in the Americas Division at SWP. There are scores of news reports in the Western media and commentaries released by Western think tanks questioning Turkeys place in the alliance. Turkey may need further assurances from NATO to avoid vulnerabilities and limit possibly hostile Russian actions. Turkey is becoming a problem and NATO should pay attention (2021). Now move on to these Congressional Research Reports: Below are resources related to the current resolution: Can tensions between Turkey and NATO be contained? Separately, at the United Nations Security Council, the NATO allies France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Poland introduced a statement condemning Turkeys incursion into Syria. All hope would not be lost for Sotckholm, as Ulgen doesnt believe Erdogan would block Swedens membership forever, particualrly given how annoyed it has made other NATO allies and the risk of economic impact as a result, particuarlly from the US. In light of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, Turkeys aggressive foreign policy poses a threat to the security of NATO members. COPYRIGHT DEBATEUS 2021 | DEVELOPED AND MAINTAINED BY SUDDHA.MARKETING. From Trumps inauguration to the present, however, the United States has shown itself ready to levy punitive measures in negotiations with Turkey. Incirlik [the base the U.S. Air Force uses in southern Turkey] is an albatross, said one former senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. Over time, siding with terrorists rather than Turkey became a pattern for many NATO member countries, particularly the U.S., Grbz wrote. NATO has stood strong before against a Soviet Union that was stronger and possessed more influence than the threat posed by Russia today. Turkey has never deviated from the NATO policy in together-adjust together-out together. Media and analysts tend to overestimate the severity of crises in alliances without clear criteria for defining them. Privacy Policy. Turkey has activated NATOs Article 4 for four times in a bid to garner alliance support and solidarity against threats posed from Syria. The MQ-9B SeaGuardian manufactured by San Diego-based General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) is tailor-made to support the U.S. Navy, its allies, and partners against peer or near-peer forces. Meanwhile, Turkey clashed with France and Greece in the Mediterranean, contesting Greeces claims to territorial waters while conducting seismic research. Seton Hall University Turkish contributions to and participations in NATO activities should be better promoted in the Western media. Candidate at the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University, specializing in Foreign Policy and Post-Conflict Reconstruction. France, whose navy faced off with Turkey off the coast of Libya, has come to the aid of Greece. We need Turkeys permission to blow our nose there., On the Turkish side, too, the marriage has been one of serial disappointments and misunderstandings. Unless there is a drastic change in the policies of the U.S. towards Turkey, the Turkish alliance with NATO will endure based on mutual benefits and dependencies, and NATO will continue to tolerate Erdogans personal aspirations because it is a partner that NATO cannot afford to lose. Turkey is a member of NATO but also maintains economic and military industry ties with Russia. But NATO disappointed Turkey more than once over the yearswhen the U.S. refused to side with the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, when Germany accused Turkey of killing civilians in its battle with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in its own country in the 1990s, and through Americas ongoing refusal to hand over Fethullah Glen, the U.S.-based leader of a Turkish political movement that Erdoan blames for orchestrating the 2016 coup attempt.