wide receiver routes run stats wide receiver routes run stats

These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. Seriously, though, it can't be much of a surprise to see these three players at the top for this route. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. Those types of opportunities vaulted Brown up this list. New Orleans Saints (52) The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. Each of the three components are weighted in a way to best match real-world production, specifically a blend of predominantly yards per route with a bit of yards per target added. For example, we can see that A.J. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? 2. Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? He was close to unseating Thomas and very well could take the next major step in his third NFL season. Our QB adjustments borrow a concept from hockey and basketball called Adjusted Plus-Minus. Each score is on a 0-99 scale, where 50 is roughly league average. The Giants Jerrel Jernigan not only had a 66% catch rate thats excellent for someone playing with the 2013 version of Eli Manning but he was targeted on a remarkable 28% of his routes in 2013! Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. Last year, Still averaged 1.29 YPRR, Johnson 1.56. Quarterbacks are clearly an essential factor in whether a receiver makes catches and gains yards. So again, what numbers can we look at and believe we have a strong indicator of future success for wide receivers? Tied-93rd. Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS. Of his 301 total yards on in routes, 181 were gained after the catch. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. It was an extremely small sample, but Seals-Jones was easily our most efficient tight end on a per-route basis last year. Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? Thats where yards per route run comes into play. Kirk was targeted at least 13 times on five different routes: Ted Ginn Jr., now a member of the Chicago Bears, ranked as our least versatile route runner of 2019 among qualifying wide receivers. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? You don't currently have any notifications. The Method. the drag). The overall score correlates at 0.52. Snap Counts; Pace / Time Stats; Drive Stats; Get More Statistics from FO + Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. While Johnson had the worst year of his career since becoming a Bills starter, he still managed to pull down targets on 25% of his snaps. (Again, no one doubts Joness talent or skills, and both he and Thomas are consistently in the conversation for best receiver in the league.). Brown trails in yards (306 to 282) but posted a better catch rate above expectation (+22.5% to +7.9%), although he saw 14 fewer targets than Thomas. Go to Ratings. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. Basic - Offense; Basic - Defense; Directional - Offense; Directional - Defense; By Team; Other. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. The idea was that NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data could estimate the chance of a completion on a pass, given the locations, directions and speeds of relevant players. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. Thats what we are doing here. (For example, pass-catchers often receive an official target stat when the pass was clearly a throwaway; RTMs exclude throwaways.). We will report this metric as targets above expectation per 100 routes run (TAE100), which is simply the number of targets a receiver gains above an average receiver whenever he runs 100 routes. RTMs are a set of four metrics we've named Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score, plus the overall combination of those three. He also posted a catch rate above expectation of +14.7 percent on those routes. Those metrics have offered a new way to see a part of football that largely goes unnoticed -- or at least unquantified. On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide . TD. Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. Play-action passes create more separation than non-play-action passes at nearly every depth of target on average, so we need to contextualize players who are targeted more often on play-action as well. Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. The, The most valuable routes by expected points added per target were the, It's worth noting four of the five most valuable routes by EPA per target are. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. * Selected to Pro Bowl, + First-Team All-Pro. NOTE: EPA/target is expected points added per target; this measures the value of individual plays in terms of points comparing the down, distance and field position situation at the start of the play relative to the end of the play. Which game is featured at the top of NGS's unlikeliest victory rankings? Steelers' first draft under Omar Khan was 'aggressive' and achieved high marks, After hoopla of going No. These statistics provide a detailed view of how a WR accumulates jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But it is interesting to know, and it is useful in making predictions. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com Seals-Jones is a strong ADP value, currently being drafted in the 15th round in MFL10s. He leads all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. He may be a bust, but it wasnt because of what he did on the field. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. NFL wide receiver rankings 2021. Among wide receivers (min. 4) Stefon Diggs, Vikings (now with Bills), 72) Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (now with Bears), The most targeted routes outside of the WR Screen? All rights reserved. Thomas isnt in the same class as Adams and Allen when it comes to creating separation Adams has averaged over a half-yard of SOE the past two years on intermediates routes but despite the tighter windows, the expected value Thomas created on these targets ranks him among the best in the league on a per-play basis. It wasn't noticeable in his box score stats as he averaged 92 yards and seven receptions per game. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. Diggs led the league in catch rate above expectation (minimum five targets on post routes) last season at +39.9 percent, turning unlikely plays into big gains. Looking at this historical data and also pairing it with metrics such as draft capital, breakout age, college dominator, etc. We cant say anything about the skill of receivers who fail to earn targets. A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. Today, we are introducing another new machine-learning tool: the Route Recognition model, which classifies routes by type, in real time, with the help of player-tracking data. You can find me on Twitter @TheBauerClub, and consider subscribing to my podcast, DynastyTheory. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers, Fantasy football rankings for 2023 season, 10 fantasy football breakout players for 2023, Broncos pick up Jeudy's 5th-year rookie option, Bills ink vet Murray after passing on RBs in draft, Source: Ravens decline LB Queen's 2024 option, LB Barrett's 2-year-old daughter drowns in pool, Bengals' Ossai recovering from offseason surgery, Deion 'ashamed' after only 1 HBCU player drafted, Sources: NFL eyes May 11 to release schedule, Cowboys scout emotional as team drafts his son. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? The 6-foot-3, 211-pound wide receiver ended up with the lowest single-season PFF grade and yards per route run average of his eight-year NFL career in 2021. Forty-eight percent of Thomass 185 targets came on passes 5 yards or less downfield in 2019. While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of the variables were examining than the others. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. 1-ranked player for each was the best running that particular route. Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. A note: all yards per route run data collected from www.pff.com. The aim now is to do the same thing for receiving. Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. The next-closest players in that category were the Rams' Cooper Kupp (99) and the Browns' Jarvis Landry (96). And if it's not completed, he would be debited accordingly. Explore sample . The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. Robby went on to score 74% of his total PPR points on routes run from the slot compared to a measly 26% on . If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. To avoid noise in the data from broken plays (during which pass catchers often stop running their assigned routes) and player movement after the catch (which would not tell us much about the efficacy of any given route), all routes were capped at either the moment the ball was passed forward or at a given time (4.6 seconds after the snap for wideout routes and 4 seconds after the snap for backfield routes) -- whichever came first. Not only is there a significant advantage to hitting the 2.00 yards per route run threshold in ones rookie year, but there is also a clear difference when that wide receiver ran at least 250 routes his rookie year. John Brown also has a compelling case here, but he was edged out by Thomas in a close battle. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Michael Thomas (3). [deleted] 2 yr. ago. If you are simply a box score watcher, nothing about Chris Godwins rookie season would have gotten you excited. CROE is catch rate over expectation, which measures performance relative to completion probabilities. For more from John, check out his archive orfollow him@TheBauerClub. In 2017, I developed a concept now commonly called Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one.